HNA Summary Report
Habitat Needs Assessment Approach

Habitat needs were identified through comparison of existing, predicted, and desired future conditions. UMRS geomorphology and climate, historic land cover change, and ecological disturbances were reviewed in the context of their influence on habitat conditions. An evaluation of existing habitat conditions was also conducted throughout the UMRS, reviewed and refined forecast future habitat conditions, and attempted to identify ecologically and socially desired future habitat conditions. The HNA addresses the system-wide, river reach, and pool scales and includes the bluff-to-bluff extent of the floodplain.

A new Geographic Information System (GIS) query tool developed as part of the HNA allows queries of where species and their habitats are likely to occur throughout the UMRS. A second new tool completed for the HNA is a floodplain vegetation successional model to predict future land cover.

Existing Conditions

GIS Database
A systemic HNA Areas GIS database was developed from existing data to standardize geomorphic area (location in the river system) and land cover (plant communities and land use) classification systems (Fig. 8). The GIS database defines various aquatic areas, islands, and contiguous and isolated floodplain areas, as well as 17 ecologically relevant land cover classes. Aquatic habitat areas were further described using spatial data about proximity to shorelines, wing dams, and closing dams. The 1989 HNA land cover GIS database also includes boundaries for EMP habitat project areas. Links to habitat project fact sheets provide information on project goals and objectives.

Habitat: Species Relationships
The UMR supports a large number of species including: over 200 aquatic macroin-vertebrate species, 44 mussel species, 143 fish species, 73 reptile and amphibian species, over 300 bird species, and over 50 mammal species, in addition to the hundreds more plant, insect, and microbe species. This large number of species was organized by combining species of aquatic macroinver-tebrates, mussels, fish, reptiles and amphibians into groups of animals, called guilds, that have similar habitat requirements and habitat use. Birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, and some fish are considered at the species level because much is known of their life history.

Relational tables were developed to link species and guilds with the HNA Areas GIS database (Table 2). These relational tables provide a coarse system-wide overview of habitat areas that have the potential to support different species and guilds. Potential habitat for species and guilds was rated by regional experts using a 0 to 3 score:

• 0 = very low potential occurrence,
• 1 = low potential occurrence,
• 2 = moderate potential occurrence,
• 3 = high potential occurrence.

HNA Query Tool
The HNA GIS Query Tool was developed to assist the Habitat Needs Assessment. It helps evaluate potential distribution of species and habitat area types throughout the UMRS. The user may query on a species and obtain habitat information, or may query on a habitat to obtain species information. These queries are accomplished using the matrices developed to associate a species’ potential to occur within various types of habitat. The query tool presently incorporates land cover and geomorphic area data. An advanced version of the tool incorporates more data layers to define habitat in more detail and to create better habitat models. Application of the advanced tool is presently limited because spatial data about habitat attributes needed to use it to its full capability are still lacking for most of the river system. The HNA GIS Query Tool was designed to generate information about user-specified species, guilds, or habitats for selected portions of the UMRS. This includes the production of GIS themes, tables, charts, maps, and text reports describing potential species habitat, occurrence, and diversity.

Forecast Future Conditions

Quantitative Assessment of Forecast Geomorphic Change
A review of published reports was used to characterize forecast geomorphic changes in the UMRS over the next 50 years. The Cumulative Effects Study, completed for the Upper Mississippi River–Illinois Waterway Navigation Feasibility Study, was the most recent attempt to quantify a forecast of future conditions for the UMRS. The Cumulative Effects study team compiled historic maps, photos, channel bathymetry, sediment transport estimates, dredging statistics, and many other data to assess apparent geomorphic changes resulting from and incurred since impoundment to help predict plan form change over the next 50 years. The review was more comprehensive in Pools 4 – 26 than in the rest of the river system.

Qualitative Assessment of Site-Specific Geomorphic Change
Two methods were used to provide a qualitative site-specific assessment of geomorphic change. Both methods incorporated an analysis of historic change to predict future conditions. The first assessment was completed as part of the Cumulative Effects Study, in which the consultant team reviewed historic maps and photos to identify areas of extensive change. Using this method, only large plan form changes were detectable. The second method incorporated the knowledge and experience of natural resource managers, many with 20 or more years of experience working in specific regions of the river. Workshops were held to have managers locate areas showing past change or expected to change in the next 50 years on maps. The manager’s local knowledge allowed a more detailed analysis because they could provide insight into changes occurring below the water’s surface. For example, backwaters that may not have displayed discernable change in surface area may have lost significant depth that reduced their value as habitat.

Floodplain Vegetation Successional Model
A terrestrial vegetation successional model was developed to help predict land cover change. A rule-based approach was employed to estimate the system-wide percent change of one land cover class to other land cover classes over a fifty-year time period. An expert panel of Upper Mississippi River System foresters, botanists, and ecologists was convened to develop the rule based successional model. The panel first agreed on the set of plant community types to be included in the analysis. The panel also agreed on a set of assumptions that would limit the range of future change under consideration. The assumptions include:

1. Land presently in agricultural use will remain in agricultural use,
2. Developed land will remain developed,
3. Existing plans for floodplain vegetation management will be implemented,
4. The climate and hydrologic regime will not change,
5. The present set of natural disturbances (wind, fire, flood, ice, diseases, etc.) will continue.

The panel then developed the basic pathways for change from early successional classes to later successional classes. A smaller team estimated the proportion of each land cover anticipated to change to other land cover classes using terrestrial area change estimates from the Cumulative Effects Study where available. The calculations were conducted at the pool scale and summarized in the HNA technical report appendices. Locations of change were not predicted.

Desired Future Habitat Conditions

Consultations With Resource Managers Workshops were held to consider historic conditions, existing conditions, the available forecast of future conditions, and ongoing geomorphic processes to ultimately identify desired future habitat conditions. Information developed previously to assess historic, existing, and predicted UMRS plan form habitat changes was distributed to participants in advance of the workshops. A qualitative assessment asked five questions to elicit responses important to assessing: the quality of the approach and information used in the description of historic, present, and predicted habitat, desired habitat quality, areas, processes, species, or habitat characteristics critical to maintaining habitat integrity, threatened habitats, and stressors or altered disturbance regimes limiting restoration potential.

Lake Chautauqua, Illinois River, inside of the restoration project. Lake Chautauqua, Illinois River, outside of the restoration project.

In an effort to quantify desired future habitat conditions, resource managers expressed their professional opinion regarding the proportion of geomorphic area classes in "desirable" condition for the present, predicted future and desired future. These percentages were then transformed into an approximation of "desirable" acres needed for each geomorphic area type.

Public Involvement

Public involvement was recognized as a vital part of the Habitat Needs Assessment process. During this first HNA, several approaches were developed by a multi-agency HNA Public Involvement Team to assess the public’s understanding, values, and expectations regarding desired future habitat conditions for the UMRS. These approaches were by no means comprehensive, but were considered to be the most practical and effective means of engaging the public in the initial HNA.

Fall waterfowl hunting is popular throughout the river system. Water skiing near Grafton, Illinois.

Information was collected from the public at two levels: institutions, and the public at large. A compilation of mission statements and UMRS management plan objectives were reviewed to identify institutional priorities and activities related to river habitat. A series of 12 open public meetings conducted in April and May 1999 and a series of ten focus group meetings conducted in July and August 2000 were used to assess the general public’s understanding, values, and expectations regarding desired future UMRS habitat conditions. Information from governmental and non-government organizations with interests in and responsibilities for habitat management in the UMRS were obtained to identify institutional intent with respect to UMRS habitat. The institutional intent was evaluated by examining the mission statements of agencies and organizations, resources identified as being important or as the target of management activities, and statements in management plans about UMRS habitat.

During April and May 1999, the National Audubon Society and Upper Mississippi River Conservation Commission convened public meetings at 12 locations on the Upper Mississippi River System. Maps showing local river resources were provided prior to the formal program portion of each meeting. Following two informative presentations about the condition of the river system, meeting participants were invited to respond to the following questions:

1. What are the important natural resources in the Mississippi (Illinois) River ecosystem?
2. What do you think are the problems and opportunities in the river ecosystem?
3. How will you recognize successful restoration of the river ecosystem?

Focus groups convened by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Upper Mississippi River Basin Association were the second method used to obtain public views of UMRS resources and the HNA process. Various river interests were reflected in the 92 focus group participants, including perspectives from environmental groups, industrial and transportation groups, fishers and hunters, landowners, and river residents. A presentation on the HNA process and results was followed by facilitated discussions on three points developed by the HNA Public Involvement team:

1. to gauge public reaction to details of the HNA process;
2. to capture public perspectives of desired future habitat conditions; and
3. to capture perspectives and preferences for future public involvement in the HNA/EMP process.