1
STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 101 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 101
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
771. 192. 348. 458. 595. 865. 1550. 3144.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 4.0747E-01 + 1.4299E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.7943E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.8551E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 17.27 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.436
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 4.0747E-01 + 1.4299E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.7943E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.8551E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 9.5078E-01 + 1.3513E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.5665E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.0043E-01 COS(DECTIME)
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 21. 13. 7. 5.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 0. 0.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 15.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 5. 7. 11. 22. 34. 108. 434.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 21. 13. 7. 5.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 15.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 5. 7. 11. 22. 34. 108. 440.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 20. 13. 7. 5.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 9. 12.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 5. 7. 10. 22. 33. 97. 363.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11.
1
STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 102 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 102
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
784. 192. 348. 450. 596. 871. 1575. 3144.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.0207E+00 + 1.3263E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.3177E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.5237E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 19.19 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.318
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.0207E+00 + 1.3263E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.3177E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.5237E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 2.8588E-01 + 1.4480E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.6929E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.5970E-01 COS(DECTIME)
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 20. 11. 6. 5.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 0. 0.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 12.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 5. 6. 10. 21. 31. 88. 348.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 20. 11. 6. 5.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 12.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 5. 6. 10. 21. 31. 88. 352.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 24. 11. 6. 5.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. 18.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 4. 6. 10. 22. 35. 104. 525.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 10.
1
STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 77
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
781. 192. 349. 454. 595. 869. 1572. 3144.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.3568E+03 + 2.3936E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1107E+00 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 5.3001E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 6.7399E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 3.655
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 73.45 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.1035E+03 + 2.2679E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.7497E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 5.5128E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 5.4757E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 2.985
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.1024E+03 + 2.5246E+00 LN(FLOW) + 9.1219E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 5.9741E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 5.4628E-01 DECTIME
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.76 2.60 0.17 0.03 0.10
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.46 1.70 0.07 0.01 0.04
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 16. 87.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.43 1.40 0.11 0.02 0.06
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 8. 48.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.66 2.30 0.13 0.02 0.06
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 12. 86.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.13
1
STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 95 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 95
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
798. 192. 354. 474. 613. 876. 1565. 3144.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.2324E+02 + 1.8966E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.0863E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.522
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 18.91 ( 16 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.273
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.2324E+02 + 1.8966E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.0863E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.522
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.2274E+02 + 1.9949E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.0806E-01 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.46 1.00 0.51 0.15 0.09
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.07 0.21 0.07 0.01 0.01
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 34.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.46 1.00 0.50 0.15 0.09
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 36.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.51 1.20 0.55 0.15 0.09
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 47.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.47
1
STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 77
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
781. 192. 349. 454. 595. 869. 1572. 3144.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.1996E+03 + 1.5933E+01 LN(FLOW) - 9.9344E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
+ 1.5820E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.9040E-01 COS(DECTIME)
- 6.3016E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 2.358
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 45.76 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 9.0367E+02 + 1.2018E+01 LN(FLOW) - 7.1632E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
+ 8.2413E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.1972E-01 COS(DECTIME)
- 4.7489E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.987
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 9.0333E+02 + 1.2081E+01 LN(FLOW) - 6.9812E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
+ 1.6245E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.0110E-01 COS(DECTIME)
- 4.7533E-01 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.16 0.34 0.14 0.09 0.07
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.05 0.13 0.05 0.03 0.03
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.14 0.28 0.13 0.07 0.05
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.19 0.44 0.16 0.07 0.06
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.09
1
STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 100 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 100
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
750. 192. 347. 443. 588. 861. 1529. 3144.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.9152E+01 - 4.3981E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.9378E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 8.7902E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.1896E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.515
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 29.03 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.034
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.9152E+01 - 4.3981E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.9378E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 8.7902E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.1896E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.515
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.8966E+01 - 4.4600E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.0765E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 1.0282E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.7431E-01 COS(DECTIME)
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L
1
STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 810. 2300. 730. 49. 16.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 510. 1600. 280. 7. 2.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
10. 16. 35. 57. 132. 230. 1071. 11569.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
5. 19. 53. 113. 498. 1139. 12506. 345377.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1400. 4200. 870. 51. 17.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
11. 17. 37. 59. 140. 243. 1293. 27742.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
6. 20. 56. 119. 525. 1221. 15218. 828196.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1900. 6300. 1000. 54. 19.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
12. 18. 36. 56. 146. 260. 1742. 44275.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
6. 21. 55. 117. 554. 1355. 19069. 1321738.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 270.
1
STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 102
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
781. 192. 349. 454. 595. 869. 1572. 3144.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.9460E+02 + 9.3001E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0006E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.712
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 177.33 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.9249E+02 + 9.2886E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.9011E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.705
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 8.4864E+01 + 9.4020E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.5086E-02 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 52. 76. 60. 38. 29.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 11. 7. 4. 4.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
16. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
14. 31. 41. 57. 88. 117. 229. 481.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 43. 63. 49. 31. 24.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
12. 25. 33. 47. 72. 97. 194. 426.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 43. 64. 50. 31. 24.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 25.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
12. 25. 33. 47. 77. 102. 203. 495.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 42.
1
STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 103
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
781. 192. 349. 454. 595. 869. 1572. 3144.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 7.8098E+01 + 1.1031E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1995E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.3438E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.7821E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 38.22 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.002
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 7.8098E+01 + 1.1031E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1995E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.3438E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.7821E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 7.8019E+01 + 1.0558E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.8297E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.1388E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.7590E-02 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 16. 12. 9. 6.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 28. 68. 199.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 16. 12. 9. 6.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 28. 68. 200.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 17. 12. 8. 6.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 28. 65. 190.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11.