1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
DRAINAGE AREA: 47593.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 103
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34886. 8828. 13737. 19015. 29649. 46528. 58953. 169652.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34335. 925. 12222. 17563. 26949. 46065. 62720. 180015.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.6477E+02 + 1.1041E+00 LN(FLOW) - 8.1751E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.101
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 14.98 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.597
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.6477E+02 + 1.1041E+00 LN(FLOW) - 8.1751E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.101
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.8686E+02 + 1.1372E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.2998E-02 DECTIME
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 290. 450. 350. 210. 120.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 23. 16. 7. 6.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
5. 124. 210. 367. 576. 719. 1312. 1535.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 290. 450. 350. 210. 120.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
5. 124. 210. 368. 578. 722. 1319. 1545.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 290. 460. 360. 210. 120.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
5. 121. 209. 374. 602. 760. 1403. 1666.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 280.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
DRAINAGE AREA: 47593.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 108 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 107
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34667. 8828. 13612. 18810. 29518. 46477. 57902. 169652.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34335. 925. 12222. 17563. 26949. 46065. 62720. 180015.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.8955E+02 + 1.3966E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.7066E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.5613E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.5893E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.475
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 44.54 ( 18 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.9066E+02 + 1.3951E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6961E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.5486E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.6437E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.471
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.9100E+02 + 1.3836E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.9195E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.4186E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.6507E-02 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 250. 460. 250. 150. 110.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 24. 61. 30. 19. 13.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 93. 152. 314. 560. 749. 1440. 2082.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 230. 430. 240. 140. 98.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 86. 141. 291. 520. 696. 1351. 1985.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 230. 400. 240. 150. 96.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 86. 143. 286. 490. 656. 1298. 1794.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 210.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
DRAINAGE AREA: 47593.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 108 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 101
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34667. 8828. 13612. 18810. 29518. 46477. 57902. 169652.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34335. 925. 12222. 17563. 26949. 46065. 62720. 180015.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 7.5704E+02 + 1.1389E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.5944E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.1193E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.7811E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.659
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 48.46 ( 18 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 7.2784E+02 + 1.1333E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.2231E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.2524E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.6352E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.564
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 7.2892E+02 + 9.1488E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.0874E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.7469E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.6530E-01 DECTIME
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 20. 50. 13. 5. 8.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 4. 14. 3. 1. 2.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 4. 9. 22. 45. 60. 200. 343.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 39. 10. 4. 7.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 4. 7. 17. 35. 46. 158. 286.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 32. 9. 4. 9.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 4. 7. 17. 29. 41. 118. 191.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
DRAINAGE AREA: 47593.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 100 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 99
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
35818. 8828. 14167. 20210. 30595. 47047. 59583. 169652.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34335. 925. 12222. 17563. 26949. 46065. 62720. 180015.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.5107E-01 + 9.7812E-01 LN(FLOW) - 2.1696E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.3904E-02 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.428
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 56.67 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.3423E-01 + 9.7655E-01 LN(FLOW) - 2.1590E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.1919E-02 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.424
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.0253E+00 + 8.6163E-01 LN(FLOW) - 1.6976E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 1.4826E-01 COS(DECTIME)
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 16. 16. 12. 6.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 45. 52.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 15. 15. 11. 6.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 42. 49.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 15. 16. 10. 5.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 40. 45.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 12.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
DRAINAGE AREA: 47593.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 106 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 102
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
33562. 8828. 13586. 18947. 29518. 46376. 57385. 115913.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34335. 925. 12222. 17563. 26949. 46065. 62720. 180015.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 6.1305E+02 + 1.0777E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.4481E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.2571E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.0841E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.147
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 49.46 ( 18 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.9749E+02 + 1.0817E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.2881E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 2.1340E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.0063E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.109
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.9742E+02 + 1.0686E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.9402E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 6.3218E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 3.0046E-01 DECTIME
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6.80 6.20 8.60 8.70 3.50
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.00 1.30 1.70 1.70 0.72
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 34. 40.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6.00 5.60 7.60 7.50 3.00
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 31. 36.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6.00 5.90 8.40 6.90 2.60
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 35. 40.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 6.2
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
DRAINAGE AREA: 47593.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 104 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 104
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
32438. 8828. 13560. 18496. 29043. 44524. 54889. 95360.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34335. 925. 12222. 17563. 26949. 46065. 62720. 180015.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.5026E+02 + 1.6051E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.4627E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 1.2923E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.6648E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.291
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 30.13 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.025
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.5026E+02 + 1.6051E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.4627E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 1.2923E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.6648E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.291
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.5028E+02 + 1.5923E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.3225E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 1.6360E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.6603E-02 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 920. 1300. 1400. 690. 200.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 77. 140. 140. 69. 19.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 23. 24.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 228. 575. 1147. 1886. 2658. 6900. 9205.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 960. 1300. 1500. 720. 210.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 24. 26.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 238. 599. 1190. 1960. 2771. 7218. 9656.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 960. 1300. 1500. 700. 200.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 24. 26.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 235. 604. 1208. 2006. 2790. 7308. 9788.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 820.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
DRAINAGE AREA: 47593.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 106 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 106
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
33562. 8828. 13586. 18947. 29518. 46376. 57385. 115913.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34335. 925. 12222. 17563. 26949. 46065. 62720. 180015.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 6.1820E+00 + 8.3604E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1320E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.4380E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.083
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 44.98 ( 18 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 6.1820E+00 + 8.3604E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1320E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.4380E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.083
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 6.4868E+00 + 8.0998E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.2846E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.2601E-01 COS(DECTIME)
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1500. 2300. 1500. 1100. 960.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 50. 120. 65. 55. 50.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
12. 15. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 33.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
69. 924. 1227. 1911. 2597. 3081. 4423. 6744.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1500. 2300. 1500. 1100. 960.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
12. 15. 16. 21. 23. 24. 25. 34.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
70. 920. 1221. 1902. 2585. 3069. 4413. 6744.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1500. 2100. 1500. 1200. 940.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
11. 15. 17. 20. 23. 23. 25. 37.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
80. 919. 1233. 1886. 2440. 2899. 4257. 6121.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1500.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
DRAINAGE AREA: 47593.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 106 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 106
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
33562. 8828. 13586. 18947. 29518. 46376. 57385. 115913.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
34335. 925. 12222. 17563. 26949. 46065. 62720. 180015.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.0140E+02 + 1.0098E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5513E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.4031E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.9132E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.135
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 29.60 ( 18 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.042
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.0140E+02 + 1.0098E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5513E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.4031E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.9132E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.135
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.0138E+02 + 1.0258E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.4784E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 6.5620E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 4.9179E-02 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lake Pepin Outflow (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: M764.3A
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 560. 680. 660. 570. 300.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 24. 48. 38. 36. 20.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
19. 301. 496. 707. 958. 1155. 2008. 2295.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 550. 680. 650. 560. 300.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
19. 298. 493. 702. 952. 1148. 2005. 2286.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 570. 770. 680. 500. 280.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
16. 289. 475. 732. 1008. 1238. 2227. 2528.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 570.