1 STATION NAME: Vermillion River at Empire, MN STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 129.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 222 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 222 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 71. 19. 27. 36. 50. 78. 135. 475. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75. 13. 25. 34. 50. 84. 142. 3413. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.6653E+01 - 1.4473E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.4059E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6628E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.110 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 95.96 ( 41 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.6653E+01 - 1.4473E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.4059E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6628E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.110 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.6296E+01 - 1.2422E-02 LN(FLOW) + 7.4625E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6342E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Vermillion River at Empire, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.87 1.20 0.87 0.85 0.61 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 41. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.87 1.10 0.87 0.85 0.61 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 50. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.85 1.10 0.85 0.83 0.61 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 33. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.89 1 STATION NAME: Vermillion River at Empire, MN STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 129.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 406 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 406 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75. 19. 27. 38. 54. 90. 147. 475. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75. 13. 25. 34. 50. 84. 142. 3413. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.1469E+01 + 5.3196E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.6714E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.7464E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.3397E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.161 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 179.10 ( 78 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.1469E+01 + 5.3196E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.6714E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.7464E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.3397E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.161 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.1334E+01 + 5.3040E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.3167E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.5724E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.3345E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Vermillion River at Empire, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.68 0.84 0.63 0.67 0.57 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.67 0.83 0.62 0.66 0.56 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.67 0.83 0.63 0.66 0.55 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.71 1 STATION NAME: Vermillion River at Empire, MN STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 129.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 443 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 338 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 73. 19. 27. 38. 53. 86. 141. 475. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75. 13. 25. 34. 50. 84. 142. 3413. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.4877E+02 + 3.2810E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.4363E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.0947E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6517E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.2834E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.029 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 223.74 ( 85 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.0353E+02 + 2.5528E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6492E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.1682E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.9656E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.0469E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.896 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.0620E+02 + 3.5661E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.7356E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.1878E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.9536E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.0728E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Vermillion River at Empire, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.02 - 0.02 1 STATION NAME: Vermillion River at Empire, MN STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 129.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 434 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 434 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 74. 19. 27. 38. 54. 87. 143. 475. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75. 13. 25. 34. 50. 84. 142. 3413. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6820E+01 - 1.4614E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.8729E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.2561E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.304 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 281.07 ( 83 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6820E+01 - 1.4614E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.8729E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.2561E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.304 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6893E+01 - 1.5107E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.8754E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.2714E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Vermillion River at Empire, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.12 1 STATION NAME: Vermillion River at Empire, MN STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 129.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 295 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 295 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 80. 19. 28. 41. 57. 94. 160. 475. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75. 13. 25. 34. 50. 84. 142. 3413. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.4844E+01 - 1.3020E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6453E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1414E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.514 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 270.47 ( 56 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.4844E+01 - 1.3020E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6453E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1414E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.514 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5428E+01 - 1.8337E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.0749E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.2495E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Vermillion River at Empire, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.10 1 STATION NAME: Vermillion River at Empire, MN STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 129.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 502 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 491 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 67. 13. 23. 33. 50. 80. 134. 475. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75. 13. 25. 34. 50. 84. 142. 3413. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1816E+02 + 4.0069E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2426E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.5785E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.2699E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.0899E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.785 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 153.48 ( 97 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1474E+02 + 3.9630E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2027E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.7411E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.1532E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.9118E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.777 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1400E+02 + 3.7279E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.9121E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0219E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.4712E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.8552E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Vermillion River at Empire, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: VR 15.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.90 4.60 3.80 2.30 1.10 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.19 0.41 0.28 0.18 0.08 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 9. 13. 19. 27. 30. 35. 43. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 24. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.40 5.30 4.30 2.70 1.20 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 10. 15. 22. 30. 34. 39. 48. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 29. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.60 5.50 5.00 2.80 1.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 10. 16. 24. 34. 38. 44. 56. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 38. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3.5