1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 148 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 148
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26954. 8200. 10390. 14925. 22850. 34500. 47600. 143900.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.9481E+02 + 3.9363E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3542E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 1.0414E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.086
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 35.02 ( 26 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.111
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.9481E+02 + 3.9363E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3542E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 1.0414E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.086
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 2.0190E+02 + 4.6946E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7316E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 1.0960E-01 DECTIME
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 260. 390. 320. 190. 110.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 16. 11. 5. 4.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
23. 106. 192. 335. 545. 652. 1010. 1327.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 260. 390. 320. 190. 110.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
23. 106. 193. 335. 545. 653. 1028. 1343.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 260. 390. 320. 190. 110.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
21. 106. 195. 339. 546. 653. 914. 1228.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 250.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 155 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 155
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26678. 8200. 10260. 14800. 22300. 34600. 47000. 143900.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 2.1161E+02 + 4.6543E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7010E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
+ 1.3916E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.5377E-02 COS(DECTIME)
- 1.1462E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.174
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 26.80 ( 28 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.529
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 2.1161E+02 + 4.6543E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7010E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
+ 1.3916E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.5377E-02 COS(DECTIME)
- 1.1462E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.174
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 2.1198E+02 + 4.6357E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6381E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
+ 1.6701E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0685E-01 COS(DECTIME)
- 1.1501E-01 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 180. 300. 210. 120. 82.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 20. 12. 7. 5.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
16. 75. 131. 234. 400. 488. 673. 815.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 180. 300. 210. 120. 82.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
16. 75. 130. 233. 397. 485. 674. 829.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 340. 210. 120. 80.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
14. 72. 130. 244. 438. 539. 785. 1001.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 170.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 155 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 149
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26678. 8200. 10260. 14800. 22300. 34600. 47000. 143900.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.9734E+00 + 7.1693E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.6374E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 4.1056E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.103
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 81.57 ( 28 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.7425E+00 + 7.4138E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.5044E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 4.1479E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.073
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.8304E+00 + 7.5081E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.2154E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 4.7671E-01 COS(DECTIME)
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 19. 6. 5. 9.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 3. 1. 1. 2.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 5. 8. 12. 21. 25. 34. 56.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 16. 5. 4. 8.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 21. 29. 51.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 14. 5. 5. 8.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 19. 26. 45.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 7.9 - 8.0
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 142 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 142
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
27493. 8200. 10660. 15375. 23902. 34800. 47600. 143900.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 6.6346E+01 + 8.4857E-01 LN(FLOW) - 1.2248E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 2.4566E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2608E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.170
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 39.81 ( 25 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.031
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 6.6346E+01 + 8.4857E-01 LN(FLOW) - 1.2248E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 2.4566E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2608E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.170
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 6.6668E+01 + 8.3240E-01 LN(FLOW) - 8.6184E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
- 2.8998E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2676E-02 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 15. 17. 9. 5.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 43. 57.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 15. 16. 9. 5.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 43. 57.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 15. 17. 9. 5.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 24. 43. 58.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 12.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 152 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 148
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26062. 8200. 10230. 14825. 22500. 34500. 46210. 100000.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.0812E+02 + 1.0436E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.9269E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 3.7775E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5566E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.738
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 41.60 ( 27 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.036
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.0090E+02 + 1.0477E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.8503E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 3.7037E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5206E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.721
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.0422E+02 + 8.4964E-01 LN(FLOW) - 5.6342E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.2371E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5264E-01 DECTIME
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.90 5.40 5.00 5.60 3.40
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.48 0.78 0.62 0.74 0.47
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 17. 24.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.60 5.20 4.80 5.30 3.20
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 22.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.50 5.90 5.10 4.00 2.80
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 4.4
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 119
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26961. 8300. 10600. 14900. 24200. 34600. 48000. 100000.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 3.6638E+01 + 8.4371E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2983E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 4.9862E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0983E+00 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.236
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 32.78 ( 20 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.036
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 3.6638E+01 + 8.4371E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2983E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 4.9862E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0983E+00 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.236
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 3.6823E+01 + 8.3939E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2466E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 5.6800E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0487E+00 COS(DECTIME)
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3400. 3600. 7800. 1700. 200.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 240. 330. 640. 140. 15.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 8. 25. 57. 91. 103. 122. 135.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
12. 312. 1689. 5198. 8647. 10691. 26862. 35982.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3400. 3700. 7900. 1700. 200.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 8. 26. 57. 92. 105. 126. 137.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
13. 316. 1706. 5259. 8801. 10925. 27446. 38527.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3500. 3600. 8000. 1900. 210.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 8. 26. 56. 92. 105. 132. 145.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
12. 317. 1703. 5152. 8713. 10873. 28985. 41256.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3100.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 152 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 152
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26062. 8200. 10230. 14825. 22500. 34500. 46210. 100000.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.5426E+01 + 6.6336E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.7691E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 7.6657E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.3791E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.058
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 36.35 ( 27 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.108
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.5426E+01 + 6.6336E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.7691E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 7.6657E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.3791E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.058
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.4909E+01 + 6.8614E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.4037E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 8.4060E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.3656E-02 DECTIME
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1200. 1700. 1300. 980. 860.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 27. 63. 39. 32. 31.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
10. 16. 19. 23. 27. 29. 37. 39.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
428. 842. 1075. 1470. 1973. 2241. 3046. 4271.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1200. 1700. 1300. 980. 870.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
10. 16. 19. 23. 27. 30. 37. 39.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
430. 846. 1080. 1477. 1983. 2251. 3065. 4304.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1200. 1700. 1300. 1000. 860.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
10. 16. 19. 23. 26. 29. 36. 37.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
428. 845. 1084. 1491. 1969. 2250. 3110. 4391.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1200.
1
STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 152 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 152
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26062. 8200. 10230. 14825. 22500. 34500. 46210. 100000.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200.
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.2981E+01 + 1.1054E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6139E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.4807E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5344E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 54.34 ( 27 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.2981E+01 + 1.1054E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6139E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.4807E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5344E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 5.3963E+01 + 1.0389E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.8451E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 7.3609E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5467E-02 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 600. 510. 410. 240.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 30. 21. 18. 11.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
81. 244. 378. 561. 762. 921. 1777. 2584.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 600. 510. 410. 240.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
81. 243. 376. 558. 759. 918. 1772. 2585.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 630. 520. 370. 230.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
88. 242. 363. 568. 775. 932. 1725. 2518.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 440.