1 STATION NAME: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 222.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 87 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 87 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 244. 1. 4. 9. 23. 82. 189. 6126. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 0. 5. 11. 35. 106. 306. 7393. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7647E+00 + 1.1682E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.148 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 10.51 ( 14 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.724 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7647E+00 + 1.1682E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.148 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7438E+00 + 1.1716E+00 LN(FLOW) 1 STATION: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.90 4.50 0.35 1.00 1.70 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.19 0.48 0.02 0.09 0.15 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 44. 103. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.90 4.50 0.35 1.00 1.70 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 44. 104. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.90 4.50 0.35 1.00 1.70 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 45. 106. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.0 1 STATION NAME: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 222.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 94 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 86 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 271. 1. 4. 10. 28. 84. 229. 6126. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 0. 5. 11. 35. 106. 306. 7393. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.5140E+02 + 1.9757E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.0906E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.7691E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 2.045 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 52.30 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.2845E+02 + 1.9446E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.9082E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.6535E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.898 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.2874E+02 + 1.9776E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.5138E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.6527E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.20 4.70 0.35 1.30 2.10 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.87 2.10 0.09 0.52 0.75 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 50. 86. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.60 3.60 0.25 0.97 1.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 39. 75. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.00 2.10 0.21 0.62 0.99 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 20. 32. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.80 1 STATION NAME: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 222.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 94 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 90 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 271. 1. 4. 10. 28. 84. 229. 6126. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 0. 5. 11. 35. 106. 306. 7393. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6623E+00 + 1.2182E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0657E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.1122E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.467 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 32.05 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.006 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6358E+00 + 1.2143E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.2242E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.9989E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.410 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2465E+00 + 1.1359E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.8217E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.5646E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.16 0.30 0.02 0.11 0.23 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.05 0.09 0.00 0.05 0.07 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.14 0.25 0.01 0.10 0.19 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.10 0.16 0.01 0.09 0.15 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.17 1 STATION NAME: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 222.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 80 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 80 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 265. 1. 4. 10. 28. 82. 192. 6126. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 0. 5. 11. 35. 106. 306. 7393. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.4588E+02 + 8.7242E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.8751E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.9178E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1164E-03 COS(DECTIME) + 7.2972E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.235 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 14.16 ( 13 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.363 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.4588E+02 + 8.7242E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.8751E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.9178E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1164E-03 COS(DECTIME) + 7.2972E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.235 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.4566E+02 + 9.2004E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.7239E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.5324E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.2445E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 7.2762E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.39 0.95 0.04 0.23 0.29 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.07 0.20 0.01 0.05 0.05 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 11. 38. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.39 0.97 0.04 0.24 0.30 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 11. 39. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.44 1.10 0.05 0.27 0.29 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 12. 48. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.62 1 STATION NAME: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 222.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 92 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 83 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 233. 1. 4. 9. 24. 82. 191. 6126. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 0. 5. 11. 35. 106. 306. 7393. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.2166E+02 + 1.3955E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.6322E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 2.084 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 27.93 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.022 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.7364E+02 + 1.3827E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.3910E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.921 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.7456E+02 + 1.3701E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.3943E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.15 0.36 0.02 0.08 0.12 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.06 0.15 0.00 0.03 0.05 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.12 0.29 0.01 0.07 0.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.11 0.27 0.01 0.06 0.09 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.07 1 STATION NAME: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 222.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 92 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 92 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 260. 1. 4. 9. 24. 82. 191. 6126. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 0. 5. 11. 35. 106. 306. 7393. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.8779E+02 + 5.3546E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0225E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.8022E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.2011E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 9.6858E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.520 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 12.45 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.645 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.8779E+02 + 5.3546E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0225E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.8022E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.2011E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 9.6858E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.520 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.8766E+02 + 5.5466E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0109E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.4318E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.2212E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 9.6769E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 330. 1000. 18. 110. 130. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 100. 330. 3. 34. 33. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 20. 37. 49. 63. 113. 198. 949. 3135. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 15. 84. 379. 8792. 62515. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 360. 1100. 19. 120. 140. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 21. 38. 50. 65. 117. 208. 1023. 3469. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 4. 16. 87. 399. 9413. 69172. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 360. 1100. 20. 130. 140. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 20. 38. 50. 66. 118. 225. 997. 3426. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 4. 16. 88. 417. 9204. 68320. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 340. 1 STATION NAME: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 222.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 91 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 91 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 236. 1. 4. 9. 24. 82. 191. 6126. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 0. 5. 11. 35. 106. 306. 7393. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.8516E+00 + 1.1848E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.6982E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.5576E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8415E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.132 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 31.64 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.007 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.8516E+00 + 1.1848E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.6982E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.5576E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8415E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.132 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.7739E+00 + 1.1694E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.4541E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.8669E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3297E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 20. 3. 4. 11. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 22. 27. 36. 42. 44. 46. 47. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 9. 22. 41. 116. 184. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 20. 3. 4. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 22. 27. 37. 42. 44. 47. 47. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 9. 22. 41. 118. 189. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 20. 3. 4. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 23. 27. 35. 39. 40. 42. 43. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 9. 21. 41. 118. 190. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 7.7 1 STATION NAME: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 222.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 91 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 91 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 236. 1. 4. 9. 24. 82. 191. 6126. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 0. 5. 11. 35. 106. 306. 7393. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7742E+02 + 1.0526E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2352E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.7605E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 8.7504E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.152 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 20.90 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.140 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7742E+02 + 1.0526E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2352E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.7605E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 8.7504E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.152 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7823E+02 + 1.0092E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5269E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0393E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.7787E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Cahokia Creek near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: CA00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.20 4.20 0.55 1.90 2.30 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.22 0.43 0.04 0.27 0.23 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 46. 81. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.20 4.20 0.54 1.90 2.20 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 46. 81. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.10 4.10 0.48 1.50 2.20 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 42. 76. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.7