1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q DRAINAGE AREA: 171300.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 93 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 93 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 131995. 43100. 62960. 80650. 108000. 167500. 249000. 375000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 153294. 38700. 64450. 82000. 117000. 204250. 299000. 596000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.7520E+01 + 5.8527E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9247E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.6695E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.7698E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.068 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 12.10 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.671 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.7520E+01 + 5.8527E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9247E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.6695E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.7698E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.068 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.7557E+01 + 5.8537E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9210E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.1975E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.1442E-02 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2600. 1700. 900. 920. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 72. 140. 120. 55. 45. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 652. 1110. 2383. 3274. 4003. 4923. 5095. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2600. 1700. 910. 920. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 187. 651. 1110. 2381. 3274. 4010. 4984. 5214. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2700. 1700. 860. 920. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 175. 639. 1101. 2472. 3425. 4237. 5189. 5447. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1500. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q DRAINAGE AREA: 171300.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 100 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 100 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 137468. 43100. 64200. 80325. 110000. 172000. 261800. 375000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 153294. 38700. 64450. 82000. 117000. 204250. 299000. 596000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.7933E+01 + 9.2878E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.3941E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.3699E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.0130E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.160 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 22.26 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.175 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.7933E+01 + 9.2878E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.3941E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.3699E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.0130E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.160 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.8278E+01 + 9.2566E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.3363E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.4951E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1584E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1100. 1900. 1100. 600. 690. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 64. 140. 94. 51. 49. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 110. 467. 823. 1717. 2285. 2511. 3015. 3177. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1100. 1900. 1100. 600. 690. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 110. 465. 819. 1719. 2287. 2549. 3026. 3201. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1100. 2000. 1200. 620. 710. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 99. 452. 827. 1838. 2479. 2852. 3418. 3661. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1100. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q DRAINAGE AREA: 171300.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 100 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 92 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 137468. 43100. 64200. 80325. 110000. 172000. 261800. 375000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 153294. 38700. 64450. 82000. 117000. 204250. 299000. 596000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.4201E+02 - 1.6167E+01 LN(FLOW) + 7.6160E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 7.2513E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.8441E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.1937E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.776 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 47.63 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.8948E+02 - 1.4654E+01 LN(FLOW) + 6.9543E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 7.0983E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.5740E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.8875E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.654 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.8852E+02 - 1.4464E+01 LN(FLOW) + 6.9261E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.4432E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.1161E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.8740E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 70. 160. 51. 16. 42. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 18. 46. 19. 4. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 14. 29. 68. 192. 294. 531. 1006. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 57. 130. 45. 13. 34. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 12. 24. 56. 157. 259. 406. 776. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 55. 100. 57. 23. 32. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 15. 25. 51. 139. 231. 401. 659. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 43. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q DRAINAGE AREA: 171300.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 85 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 85 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 135295. 47000. 67760. 82350. 112000. 171500. 255800. 375000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 153294. 38700. 64450. 82000. 117000. 204250. 299000. 596000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.2639E+00 + 1.4490E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.142 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 8.64 ( 14 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.853 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.2639E+00 + 1.4490E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.142 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.4998E+00 + 1.4715E+00 LN(FLOW) 1 STATION: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 100. 150. 130. 64. 48. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 7. 11. 10. 3. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 37. 61. 137. 238. 310. 553. 643. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 100. 150. 130. 64. 48. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 37. 61. 137. 239. 312. 557. 648. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 100. 150. 140. 65. 47. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 36. 61. 139. 244. 319. 576. 672. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 93. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q DRAINAGE AREA: 171300.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 98 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 95 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 138217. 43100. 63910. 80975. 110000. 173500. 262400. 375000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 153294. 38700. 64450. 82000. 117000. 204250. 299000. 596000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.5568E+00 + 1.4263E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.077 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 34.73 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.004 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.5350E+00 + 1.4251E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.047 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.1239E+00 + 1.4935E+00 LN(FLOW) 1 STATION: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 33. 49. 43. 21. 16. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 9. 8. 3. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 12. 20. 45. 77. 99. 172. 198. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 29. 43. 37. 18. 14. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 11. 18. 39. 67. 87. 154. 179. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 30. 45. 39. 19. 14. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 10. 18. 40. 71. 94. 170. 199. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 26. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q DRAINAGE AREA: 171300.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 98 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 98 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 135579. 43100. 63910. 80000. 108000. 172000. 260200. 375000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 153294. 38700. 64450. 82000. 117000. 204250. 299000. 596000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.1007E+01 - 4.3430E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.7134E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5882E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.4270E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.285 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 23.08 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.112 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.1007E+01 - 4.3430E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.7134E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5882E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.4270E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.285 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.0568E+01 - 4.3846E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.7791E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.1628E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.8825E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 66000. 110000. 110000. 23000. 13000. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 10000. 14000. 25000. 3500. 1200. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 21. 38. 59. 129. 207. 308. 530. 620. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2205. 8428. 18082. 73082. 162756. 297314. 771143. 992989. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 68000. 110000. 120000. 24000. 13000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 22. 38. 60. 130. 209. 316. 573. 682. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2295. 8504. 18284. 73730. 164608. 303695. 829973. 1092762. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 72000. 100000. 130000. 29000. 13000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 20. 39. 59. 126. 229. 334. 702. 856. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2121. 8563. 18336. 70030. 186909. 323191. 1016446. 1375417. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 50000. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q DRAINAGE AREA: 171300.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 97 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 97 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 138549. 43100. 63720. 80650. 112000. 175000. 262800. 375000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 153294. 38700. 64450. 82000. 117000. 204250. 299000. 596000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.3540E+00 + 6.8344E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0019E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8716E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.078 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 33.76 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.006 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.3540E+00 + 6.8344E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0019E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8716E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.078 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.7207E+00 + 6.4773E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.4087E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.2511E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7400. 9900. 6900. 5700. 6600. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 240. 480. 340. 300. 330. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 17. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 35. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2800. 5042. 6662. 9395. 11596. 12915. 15077. 15705. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7400. 10000. 7000. 5800. 6700. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 17. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 36. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2829. 5089. 6724. 9486. 11706. 13055. 15254. 15941. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7500. 10000. 7200. 5500. 6400. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 17. 20. 23. 28. 29. 32. 35. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2860. 5071. 6620. 9722. 11757. 13175. 15321. 15833. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 7700. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q DRAINAGE AREA: 171300.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 97 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 97 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 138549. 43100. 63720. 80650. 112000. 175000. 262800. 375000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 153294. 38700. 64450. 82000. 117000. 204250. 299000. 596000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.2825E+01 + 1.1729E+01 LN(FLOW) - 4.3593E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 7.3203E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.8949E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.432 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 43.01 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.2825E+01 + 1.1729E+01 LN(FLOW) - 4.3593E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 7.3203E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.8949E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.432 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.1601E+01 + 1.1847E+01 LN(FLOW) - 4.5338E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 8.4855E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1786E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River downstream of Lock and Dam 26 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M196.9Q LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1800. 2600. 1800. 1500. 1300. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 170. 320. 260. 210. 160. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 192. 856. 1442. 2680. 3643. 4062. 4368. 4907. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1700. 2400. 1700. 1400. 1200. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 186. 804. 1354. 2514. 3468. 3904. 4393. 4761. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1500. 2100. 1600. 1300. 1100. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 215. 872. 1368. 2254. 2732. 3003. 3194. 3450. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1600.