1 STATION NAME: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO STATION NUMBER: 05490600 DRAINAGE AREA: 14038.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19921231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 160 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 160 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 10014. 200. 827. 1775. 5210. 12150. 23450. 107000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8382. 115. 630. 1535. 4900. 14600. 20200. 64900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.9565E+00 + 2.3860E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.2577E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.7648E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3843E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.283 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 38.67 ( 29 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.108 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.9565E+00 + 2.3860E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.2577E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.7648E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3843E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.283 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.8338E+00 + 2.3679E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.0885E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.3005E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.9899E-02 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05490600 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 170. 290. 210. 81. 96. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 23. 16. 7. 8. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 15. 78. 293. 438. 588. 783. 1516. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 170. 280. 200. 80. 95. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 15. 77. 289. 432. 581. 774. 1508. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 170. 280. 220. 83. 90. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 15. 76. 299. 436. 579. 792. 1528. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 160. 1 STATION NAME: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO STATION NUMBER: 05490600 DRAINAGE AREA: 14038.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19921231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 164 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 148 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 10068. 200. 833. 1855. 5385. 12150. 23600. 107000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8382. 115. 630. 1535. 4900. 14600. 20200. 64900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.1891E+01 + 6.1124E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5845E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.9840E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.5495E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.176 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 70.28 ( 29 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.8873E+01 + 5.4575E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.2324E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.7160E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.1410E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.101 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.9079E+01 + 5.4814E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.2204E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.1690E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.4098E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05490600 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 320. 180. 100. 140. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 25. 53. 29. 17. 24. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 8. 81. 313. 502. 651. 946. 1237. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 160. 280. 170. 89. 120. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 8. 72. 280. 438. 572. 814. 1123. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 180. 280. 210. 98. 110. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 8. 73. 330. 478. 610. 782. 1204. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 110. 1 STATION NAME: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO STATION NUMBER: 05490600 DRAINAGE AREA: 14038.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19921231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 87 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 73 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 12295. 610. 1470. 3200. 6660. 15400. 26720. 107000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8382. 115. 630. 1535. 4900. 14600. 20200. 64900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6993E+02 + 3.3024E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1138E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.2522E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.6067E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.1939E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.113 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 20.43 ( 14 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.117 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.4086E+02 + 3.0917E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0351E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.5125E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.6544E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.6629E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.029 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.4226E+02 + 2.8748E+00 LN(FLOW) - 8.7513E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.2092E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.2790E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.7000E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05490600 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5. 11. 3. 2. 6. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 3. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 2. 5. 14. 24. 51. 100. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.70 9.40 2.70 1.80 4.90 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 21. 42. 79. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5. 11. 3. 2. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 23. 50. 100. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.1 1 STATION NAME: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO STATION NUMBER: 05490600 DRAINAGE AREA: 14038.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19921231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 171 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 171 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 10575. 200. 846. 1980. 6260. 15400. 23940. 107000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8382. 115. 630. 1535. 4900. 14600. 20200. 64900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2873E+01 + 6.4211E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.1037E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5266E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.1474E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1133E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.294 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 44.28 ( 31 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.058 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2873E+01 + 6.4211E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.1037E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5266E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.1474E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1133E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.294 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3293E+01 + 6.8421E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.6975E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.3120E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.0601E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1382E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05490600 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 10. 7. 3. 4. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 10. 15. 21. 30. 71. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 10. 7. 3. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 10. 15. 21. 30. 72. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 10. 7. 3. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 30. 71. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 6.2 1 STATION NAME: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO STATION NUMBER: 05490600 DRAINAGE AREA: 14038.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19921231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 67 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 58 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1981 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 14296. 610. 1564. 3440. 7940. 21000. 32500. 107000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8382. 115. 630. 1535. 4900. 14600. 20200. 64900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.7809E+02 + 5.5898E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.2032E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.8562E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.9651E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 7.7428E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.580 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 19.13 ( 10 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.039 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6150E+02 + 4.6148E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7118E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 7.3996E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.1770E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 7.1492E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.533 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.5948E+02 + 4.6609E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7273E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 9.0123E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.8061E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 7.0365E-02 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05490600 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.20 3.20 1.90 1.70 2.20 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.28 0.56 0.31 0.31 0.38 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 47. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.20 3.20 2.00 1.60 2.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 42. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.30 3.60 2.30 1.50 1.90 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 14. 37. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.4 1 STATION NAME: Des Moines River near St. Francisville, MO STATION NUMBER: 05490600 DRAINAGE AREA: 14038.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19921231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 140 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 140 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1992 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9923. 366. 1155. 2963. 6500. 15850. 23450. 58900. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8382. 115. 630. 1535. 4900. 14600. 20200. 64900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1900E+02 + 1.5910E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.9288E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.197 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 22.92 ( 25 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.582 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1900E+02 + 1.5910E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.9288E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.197 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1466E+02 + 1.4877E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.6704E-02 DECTIME WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Des Moines River St. Francisville, MO (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05490600 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10000. 17000. 15000. 4700. 4400. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1500. 2600. 2200. 610. 580. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 109. 195. 382. 565. 731. 968. 1565. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 472. 2669. 15646. 29666. 40636. 69430. 240971. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11000. 18000. 15000. 5000. 4700. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 115. 206. 402. 596. 773. 1031. 1684. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 499. 2804. 16612. 31319. 43152. 73979. 259299. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9700. 16000. 14000. 4600. 4400. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 24. 133. 214. 373. 537. 677. 875. 1314. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 578. 2900. 15256. 27695. 37699. 62377. 202374. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 13000. 1 STATION NAME: Des Moines River St. Francisville, MO STATION NUMBER: 05490600 DRAINAGE AREA: 14038.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19921231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 173 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 173 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 10626. 200. 851. 2020. 6340. 15700. 23880. 107000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8382. 115. 630. 1535. 4900. 14600. 20200. 64900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.7182E+01 + 1.4062E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.8091E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.3297E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.0054E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 2.0857E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.100 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 43.33 ( 31 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.070 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.7182E+01 + 1.4062E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.8091E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.3297E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.0054E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 2.0857E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.100 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.5903E+01 + 1.6554E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.2876E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.2574E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.3663E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 1.9695E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Des Moines River St. Francisville, MO (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05490600 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 620. 540. 290. 300. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 26. 22. 13. 12. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 19. 26. 32. 37. 40. 44. 46. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 132. 347. 700. 943. 1087. 1345. 1776. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 430. 620. 530. 290. 300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 19. 26. 31. 36. 40. 44. 46. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 131. 345. 695. 936. 1080. 1337. 1767. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 430. 610. 540. 290. 300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 19. 26. 31. 36. 38. 41. 42. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 132. 352. 700. 927. 1057. 1288. 1654. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 380. 1 STATION NAME: Des Moines River St. Francisville, MO STATION NUMBER: 05490600 DRAINAGE AREA: 14038.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19921231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 173 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 169 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 10626. 200. 851. 2020. 6340. 15700. 23880. 107000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8382. 115. 630. 1535. 4900. 14600. 20200. 64900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.0116E+01 + 3.3180E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.6016E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.3120E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.0647E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.4940E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.104 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 101.41 ( 31 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.8488E+01 + 3.2886E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.4670E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.1811E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.0407E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.4039E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.082 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.1940E+01 + 4.2980E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6060E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.0962E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.4946E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.7576E-02 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Des Moines River St. Francisville, MO (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05490600 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 560. 580. 350. 260. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 53. 86. 87. 57. 42. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 40. 58. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 22. 149. 733. 1227. 1619. 2490. 5000. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 370. 470. 480. 290. 220. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 10. 15. 21. 25. 34. 48. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 18. 126. 618. 1029. 1364. 2093. 4301. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 330. 450. 420. 240. 200. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 10. 14. 19. 22. 29. 33. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 21. 140. 574. 894. 1127. 1657. 2784. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 300.