1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA STATION NUMBER: 05474500 DRAINAGE AREA: 1190000.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19880101 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 94 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 94 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1987 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 76260. 12600. 32750. 45450. 61500. 95725. 147000. 220000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 77445. 10700. 31000. 41700. 62500. 101000. 149800. 268000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.5489E+01 + 1.3144E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.9000E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.8409E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.7873E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.149 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 21.69 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.116 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.5489E+01 + 1.3144E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.9000E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.8409E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.7873E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.149 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.6764E+01 + 1.3913E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.7366E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4503E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.8057E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05474500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 910. 1800. 680. 560. 580. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 54. 140. 48. 49. 43. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 36. 309. 585. 1125. 2280. 2991. 4052. 5261. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 910. 1800. 680. 570. 580. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 37. 310. 587. 1127. 2290. 3002. 4071. 5294. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 940. 1900. 670. 600. 610. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 32. 306. 591. 1162. 2365. 3200. 4376. 5707. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 820. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA STATION NUMBER: 05474500 DRAINAGE AREA: 1190000.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19880101 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 99 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 96 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1987 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75392. 12600. 33000. 48000. 60700. 92000. 141000. 220000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 77445. 10700. 31000. 41700. 62500. 101000. 149800. 268000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6672E+02 + 1.6837E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.4834E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.5244E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 8.1394E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.742 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 21.01 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.178 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6935E+02 + 1.6744E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.4746E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.4150E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 8.2775E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.724 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6909E+02 + 1.6710E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.9278E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.3806E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 8.2690E-02 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05474500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 750. 1600. 410. 460. 510. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 110. 300. 68. 95. 88. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 171. 381. 901. 1941. 2912. 4429. 6272. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 730. 1600. 400. 450. 490. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 165. 368. 877. 1887. 2831. 4347. 6164. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 710. 1500. 400. 470. 480. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 168. 372. 858. 1811. 2742. 4146. 5812. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 480. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA STATION NUMBER: 05474500 DRAINAGE AREA: 1190000.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19880101 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 43 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 39 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75765. 12600. 34600. 48000. 68750. 95100. 138000. 200000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 77445. 10700. 31000. 41700. 62500. 101000. 149800. 268000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.0135E+01 + 1.3287E+01 LN(FLOW) - 5.3986E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.5443E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0717E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.772 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 5.91 ( 5 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.315 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.7637E+01 + 1.2866E+01 LN(FLOW) - 5.2199E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.1895E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 9.8851E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.766 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.6498E+01 + 7.6574E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.0481E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.7284E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.8567E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05474500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 44. 95. 31. 19. 31. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 25. 8. 5. 7. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 15. 29. 58. 116. 130. 140. 142. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 44. 94. 32. 20. 31. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 16. 30. 59. 114. 131. 143. 147. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 41. 82. 25. 19. 39. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 18. 31. 53. 96. 111. 128. 135. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 46. - 47. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA STATION NUMBER: 05474500 DRAINAGE AREA: 1190000.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19880101 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 99 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 99 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1987 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75392. 12600. 33000. 48000. 60700. 92000. 141000. 220000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 77445. 10700. 31000. 41700. 62500. 101000. 149800. 268000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.5935E+01 - 2.1201E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5315E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.145 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 22.70 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.122 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.5935E+01 - 2.1201E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5315E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.145 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2072E+01 - 3.3144E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.1073E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05474500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 59. 110. 52. 47. 34. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 3. 9. 2. 2. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 24. 39. 74. 133. 179. 253. 335. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 60. 110. 52. 47. 34. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 24. 39. 75. 134. 181. 258. 343. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 63. 120. 54. 49. 34. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 23. 39. 77. 147. 206. 307. 425. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 58. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA STATION NUMBER: 05474500 DRAINAGE AREA: 1190000.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19880101 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 22 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 22 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1981 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 86932. 12600. 27470. 51888. 75350. 108375. 181700. 200000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 77445. 10700. 31000. 41700. 62500. 101000. 149800. 268000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2717E+02 + 7.8138E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1530E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.182 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 2.16 ( 1 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.141 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2717E+02 + 7.8138E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1530E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.182 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2621E+02 + 7.4748E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1503E-01 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05474500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 19. 14. 13. 11. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 3. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 6. 12. 20. 28. 33. 48. 62. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 20. 14. 13. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 6. 12. 20. 28. 33. 48. 63. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 19. 14. 13. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 7. 12. 20. 27. 32. 46. 60. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 16. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA STATION NUMBER: 05474500 DRAINAGE AREA: 1190000.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19880101 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 76 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 76 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1987 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 70888. 12600. 32780. 44950. 60000. 85800. 136300. 194000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 77445. 10700. 31000. 41700. 62500. 101000. 149800. 268000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7464E+02 - 1.5666E+01 LN(FLOW) + 8.2427E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.0824E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.8079E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.3316E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.775 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 14.50 ( 12 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.270 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7464E+02 - 1.5666E+01 LN(FLOW) + 8.2427E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.0824E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.8079E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.3316E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.775 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7456E+02 - 1.5689E+01 LN(FLOW) + 8.2108E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0156E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.2925E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.2959E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05474500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 58000. 150000. 38000. 35000. 9200. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 17000. 53000. 7900. 13000. 2000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 34. 54. 145. 351. 609. 1313. 2587. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 942. 3635. 8790. 39140. 139953. 293450. 789148. 1758451. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 61000. 160000. 38000. 38000. 9400. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 35. 54. 144. 354. 636. 1417. 2939. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1074. 3645. 8741. 39109. 141446. 304737. 861072. 1997337. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 58000. 160000. 34000. 32000. 9600. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 17. 36. 53. 137. 343. 600. 1341. 2703. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1361. 3727. 8645. 37216. 135074. 290338. 809460. 1836821. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 27000. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA STATION NUMBER: 05474500 DRAINAGE AREA: 1190000.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19880101 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 100 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 100 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1987 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75118. 12600. 33400. 48000. 60600. 91500. 140900. 220000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 77445. 10700. 31000. 41700. 62500. 101000. 149800. 268000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3301E+01 + 9.2045E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.8177E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.7226E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 9.4084E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.046 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 17.53 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.419 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3301E+01 + 9.2045E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.8177E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.7226E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 9.4084E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.046 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3222E+01 + 9.0984E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0925E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0088E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 9.4146E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05474500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3400. 5300. 2900. 2800. 2600. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 94. 210. 110. 120. 98. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 20. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 504. 1884. 2827. 4261. 6373. 7761. 9557. 10702. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3400. 5300. 2900. 2800. 2600. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 21. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 505. 1886. 2829. 4263. 6380. 7774. 9570. 10719. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3400. 5300. 2800. 2700. 2600. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 497. 1889. 2820. 4221. 6432. 7843. 9626. 10887. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3300. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA STATION NUMBER: 05474500 DRAINAGE AREA: 1190000.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19880101 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 96 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 92 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 75277. 12600. 32850. 46275. 60600. 94325. 144600. 220000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 77445. 10700. 31000. 41700. 62500. 101000. 149800. 268000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.4274E+01 - 6.5713E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.7030E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 7.3056E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.5344E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 6.3558E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.254 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 50.67 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.5971E+01 - 6.0925E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.4815E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.5479E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.4801E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 6.3119E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.206 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4869E+01 + 4.9299E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.4456E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.7950E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.0282E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.2707E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05474500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3000. 5200. 1500. 3000. 2200. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 670. 1500. 340. 900. 530. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 7. 9. 14. 21. 25. 36. 57. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 107. 817. 1594. 3322. 7238. 10733. 19810. 40997. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2500. 4400. 1200. 2500. 1900. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 31. 53. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 108. 679. 1317. 2755. 6015. 8985. 17086. 38322. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2100. 3600. 1100. 1900. 1700. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 24. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 30. 669. 1363. 2657. 4968. 6516. 9957. 11932. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1500.