1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 STATION NUMBER: M497.2B DRAINAGE AREA: 88394.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980820 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 128 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 128 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68609. 20222. 30984. 41636. 56573. 87175. 116585. 250823. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68805. 15296. 34055. 40716. 55004. 85070. 122691. 267730. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6605E+00 + 1.3980E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.9227E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0043E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.116 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 20.83 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.531 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6605E+00 + 1.3980E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.9227E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0043E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.116 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.3627E+00 + 1.5560E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.9666E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.6290E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M497.2B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 650. 1200. 670. 360. 320. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 26. 65. 35. 20. 16. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 58. 294. 405. 823. 1356. 1905. 3177. 3716. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 650. 1200. 670. 360. 320. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 58. 293. 404. 821. 1353. 1902. 3178. 3718. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 690. 1300. 700. 370. 320. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 45. 284. 406. 856. 1461. 2163. 3798. 4566. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 630. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 STATION NUMBER: M497.2B DRAINAGE AREA: 88394.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980820 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 131 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 131 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68869. 20222. 31090. 41959. 56479. 87471. 116675. 250823. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68805. 15296. 34055. 40716. 55004. 85070. 122691. 267730. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.3238E+00 + 1.5171E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.8991E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.5524E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.374 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 29.81 ( 23 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.155 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.3238E+00 + 1.5171E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.8991E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.5524E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.374 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.3113E+00 + 1.5206E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6973E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.9322E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M497.2B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 540. 1000. 490. 280. 290. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 40. 110. 47. 27. 26. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 32. 231. 326. 675. 1174. 1728. 2662. 3625. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 530. 1000. 480. 270. 280. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 32. 227. 321. 664. 1156. 1705. 2641. 3599. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 510. 920. 480. 310. 280. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 34. 233. 328. 638. 1055. 1528. 2511. 3206. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 500. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 STATION NUMBER: M497.2B DRAINAGE AREA: 88394.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980820 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 131 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 126 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68869. 20222. 31090. 41959. 56479. 87471. 116675. 250823. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68805. 15296. 34055. 40716. 55004. 85070. 122691. 267730. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.8902E+02 + 1.3933E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.9269E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.283 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 42.67 ( 23 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.008 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.6636E+02 + 1.3731E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.8145E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.239 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5291E+02 + 1.0877E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.7609E-01 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M497.2B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 32. 54. 35. 19. 15. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 5. 10. 5. 2. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 12. 22. 38. 60. 94. 195. 244. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 29. 49. 32. 17. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 11. 20. 35. 54. 84. 176. 222. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 24. 37. 27. 17. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 13. 20. 30. 42. 59. 105. 128. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 22. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 STATION NUMBER: M497.2B DRAINAGE AREA: 88394.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980820 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 120 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 120 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 69901. 20222. 31114. 42113. 57564. 88986. 116688. 250823. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68805. 15296. 34055. 40716. 55004. 85070. 122691. 267730. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8036E+02 + 1.4322E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.2875E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.243 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 28.01 ( 21 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.140 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8036E+02 + 1.4322E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.2875E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.243 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8040E+02 + 1.3745E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.2566E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M497.2B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 37. 58. 45. 24. 15. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 4. 3. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 15. 23. 44. 76. 110. 211. 277. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 36. 58. 45. 24. 15. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 15. 23. 44. 75. 110. 211. 277. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 36. 55. 44. 24. 16. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 15. 23. 43. 73. 104. 195. 254. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 35. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 STATION NUMBER: M497.2B DRAINAGE AREA: 88394.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980820 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 92 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 86 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 64070. 21793. 31251. 40683. 54534. 79101. 106720. 194265. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68805. 15296. 34055. 40716. 55004. 85070. 122691. 267730. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8881E+01 + 3.9881E+01 LN(FLOW) - 1.7352E+00 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.8109E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5350E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1938E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.566 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 22.48 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.096 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.0069E+00 + 3.4822E+01 LN(FLOW) - 1.5052E+00 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.7800E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5300E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.9002E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.486 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.1515E+00 + 3.4692E+01 LN(FLOW) - 1.5208E+00 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.1801E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.8711E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 9.7382E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M497.2B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 9. 11. 15. 5. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 2. 3. 4. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 9. 13. 19. 26. 33. 36. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 8. 10. 13. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 8. 11. 16. 22. 28. 30. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 7. 11. 13. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 27. 28. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 8.0 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 STATION NUMBER: M497.2B DRAINAGE AREA: 88394.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980820 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 128 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 128 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 67642. 20222. 30984. 41636. 54938. 84479. 113919. 250823. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68805. 15296. 34055. 40716. 55004. 85070. 122691. 267730. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3955E+02 + 1.8256E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6590E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.0369E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.2016E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.538 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 32.43 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.070 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3955E+02 + 1.8256E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6590E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.0369E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.2016E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.538 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3783E+02 + 1.8923E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8907E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.2943E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.1522E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M497.2B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11000. 16000. 20000. 5100. 1500. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1200. 2100. 2800. 610. 170. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 17. 34. 58. 79. 102. 204. 239. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 330. 1894. 5274. 12666. 26272. 38949. 121023. 172664. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11000. 16000. 21000. 5200. 1600. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 18. 35. 59. 81. 104. 210. 248. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 339. 1930. 5382. 12895. 26913. 39856. 124819. 178897. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11000. 16000. 21000. 5300. 1600. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 18. 34. 58. 79. 104. 214. 254. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 336. 1945. 5301. 12523. 26622. 40185. 126385. 183438. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 9200. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 STATION NUMBER: M497.2B DRAINAGE AREA: 88394.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980820 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 129 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 129 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 67982. 20222. 31046. 41744. 55240. 85416. 116572. 250823. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68805. 15296. 34055. 40716. 55004. 85070. 122691. 267730. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.9656E+00 + 2.4687E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.2322E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0181E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 9.6582E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.028 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 36.23 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.029 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.9656E+00 + 2.4687E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.2322E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0181E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 9.6582E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.028 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.7618E+00 + 2.4459E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.1866E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.7213E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1208E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M497.2B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2800. 4100. 2800. 2100. 2000. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 46. 110. 68. 56. 48. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 14. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 587. 1892. 2325. 3516. 4617. 5597. 7063. 7903. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2800. 4100. 2800. 2100. 2000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 14. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 589. 1892. 2325. 3516. 4616. 5599. 7083. 7921. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2800. 4000. 2800. 2200. 2000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 14. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 600. 1909. 2341. 3475. 4500. 5440. 6858. 7652. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2800. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 STATION NUMBER: M497.2B DRAINAGE AREA: 88394.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980820 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 129 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 129 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 67982. 20222. 31046. 41744. 55240. 85416. 116572. 250823. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 68805. 15296. 34055. 40716. 55004. 85070. 122691. 267730. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4845E+00 + 1.4940E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2833E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.8042E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.448 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 64.58 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4845E+00 + 1.4940E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2833E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.8042E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.448 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.5021E+00 + 1.1516E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1267E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7263E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 14 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M497.2B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 840. 1000. 820. 930. 570. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 63. 120. 88. 100. 57. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 81. 441. 684. 1012. 1545. 1974. 3392. 4241. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 790. 980. 770. 870. 530. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 77. 413. 640. 947. 1450. 1857. 3209. 4026. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 750. 1000. 800. 660. 470. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 130. 449. 614. 914. 1322. 1576. 2653. 3144. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 770.