1
STATION NAME: Apple River at Hanover, IL
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
DRAINAGE AREA: 252.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 110 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 110
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
207. 45. 62. 82. 131. 201. 423. 2193.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
251. 45. 68. 91. 134. 220. 508. 7599.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.2654E+00 + 2.3877E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0252E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 3.8351E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.8156E-02 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.089
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 19.53 ( 19 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.424
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.2654E+00 + 2.3877E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0252E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 3.8351E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.8156E-02 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.089
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.5614E+00 + 2.4997E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1213E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 7.2027E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.8012E-02 COS(DECTIME)
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Apple River at Hanover, IL (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.30 4.20 4.10 1.50 3.00
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.23 0.33 0.34 0.08 0.29
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 29. 70.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.30 4.20 4.10 1.50 3.10
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 29. 78.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.30 4.30 4.20 1.40 3.00
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 30. 72.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3.3
1
STATION NAME: Apple River at Hanover, IL
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
DRAINAGE AREA: 252.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 111 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 111
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
208. 45. 62. 82. 134. 214. 422. 2193.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
251. 45. 68. 91. 134. 220. 508. 7599.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.8652E+00 + 2.8845E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.4193E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 2.3770E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5094E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.130
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 19.75 ( 19 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.410
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.8652E+00 + 2.8845E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.4193E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 2.3770E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5094E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.130
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.3411E+00 + 2.6998E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.2485E-01 LN(FLOW)**2
- 3.8401E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7428E-01 COS(DECTIME)
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Apple River at Hanover, IL (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.00 4.00 3.60 1.40 3.00
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.26 0.37 0.36 0.09 0.32
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 27. 53.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.10 4.00 3.60 1.40 3.00
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 27. 61.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.10 4.10 3.70 1.30 3.20
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 30. 77.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.9
1
STATION NAME: Apple River at Hanover, IL
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
DRAINAGE AREA: 252.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 113 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 109
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
206. 45. 63. 82. 133. 204. 420. 2193.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
251. 45. 68. 91. 134. 220. 508. 7599.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 7.3539E+02 + 2.1162E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.0536E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 7.8347E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.6526E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.347
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 32.32 ( 19 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.029
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 7.2186E+02 + 2.0999E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.1507E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 7.6781E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.5852E-01 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.305
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 7.2232E+02 + 1.8446E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.8792E-02 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 4.7433E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.5946E-01 DECTIME
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Apple River at Hanover, IL (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.55 0.49 0.30 0.06 1.30
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.24 0.18 0.11 0.01 0.71
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 11.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 9. 178.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.51 0.44 0.27 0.05 1.30
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 11.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 9. 181.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.27 0.29 0.20 0.04 0.53
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 57.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.13
1
STATION NAME: Apple River at Hanover, IL
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
DRAINAGE AREA: 252.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 102 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 102
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
216. 50. 65. 82. 134. 226. 441. 2193.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
251. 45. 68. 91. 134. 220. 508. 7599.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.0753E+00 + 1.3898E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0539E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 1.5224E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.353
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 20.65 ( 17 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.242
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.0753E+00 + 1.3898E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0539E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 1.5224E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.353
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 2.4260E+00 + 1.4471E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5093E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 1.4200E-01 COS(DECTIME)
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
1
STATION: Apple River at Hanover, IL (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.23 0.28 0.35 0.07 0.18
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.04
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 15.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.23 0.29 0.36 0.08 0.19
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 16.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.25 0.30 0.40 0.08 0.21
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 19.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.20
1
STATION NAME: Apple River at Hanover, IL
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
DRAINAGE AREA: 252.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 74 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 69
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
194. 54. 76. 94. 127. 188. 304. 2193.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
251. 45. 68. 91. 134. 220. 508. 7599.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 7.6332E+00 + 2.0908E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8578E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 6.1101E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.684
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 17.70 ( 11 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.089
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 7.3753E+00 + 2.0454E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5601E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 5.5893E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.596
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 6.5233E+00 + 1.9079E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.4836E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 6.0930E-01 COS(DECTIME)
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Apple River at Hanover, IL (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.18 0.19 0.15 0.03 0.35
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.01 0.22
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 58.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.03 0.38
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 70.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.03 0.24
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 37.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.05
1
STATION NAME: Apple River at Hanover, IL
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
DRAINAGE AREA: 252.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 110 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 110
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
188. 45. 62. 82. 129. 192. 407. 1173.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
251. 45. 68. 91. 134. 220. 508. 7599.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.8338E+02 + 1.6608E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.8959E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 6.7010E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 9.2609E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.385
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 11.02 ( 19 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.923
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.8338E+02 + 1.6608E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.8959E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 6.7010E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 9.2609E-02 DECTIME
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.385
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = - 1.8328E+02 + 1.6667E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.1880E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
- 6.9039E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 9.2473E-02 DECTIME
NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL
SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION.
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L
1
STATION: Apple River at Hanover, IL (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 52. 55. 110. 11. 25.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 10. 21. 1. 7.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
7. 14. 24. 45. 71. 100. 193. 418.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 4. 8. 23. 88. 227. 990. 5962.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 55. 58. 120. 11. 27.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
7. 15. 25. 47. 74. 104. 203. 454.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 4. 8. 24. 93. 236. 1045. 6467.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 55. 53. 120. 13. 25.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
7. 15. 25. 49. 73. 104. 211. 477.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
1. 4. 8. 24. 89. 235. 1009. 6802.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 40.
1
STATION NAME: Apple River at Hanover, IL
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
DRAINAGE AREA: 252.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 111 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 111
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
208. 45. 62. 82. 133. 214. 422. 2193.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
251. 45. 68. 91. 134. 220. 508. 7599.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 4.3783E+00 + 1.0149E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.9794E-03 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.2849E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.049
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 38.34 ( 19 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.005
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 4.3783E+00 + 1.0149E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.9794E-03 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.2849E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.049
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 4.3841E+00 + 1.0111E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.5532E-03 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 9.6359E-02 COS(DECTIME)
1
STATION: Apple River at Hanover, IL (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 14. 13. 6. 11.
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 1. 0. 1.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
14. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. 19. 19.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 4. 6. 10. 22. 36. 91. 380.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 14. 13. 6. 11.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
14. 15. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. 19.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 4. 6. 10. 22. 36. 92. 384.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 14. 13. 6. 11.
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
15. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 19.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 4. 6. 10. 22. 37. 92. 371.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11.
1
STATION NAME: Apple River at Hanover, IL
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
DRAINAGE AREA: 252.0 SQUARE MILES
CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon
LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 111 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 108
CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
208. 45. 62. 82. 133. 214. 422. 2193.
PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS
MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM
251. 45. 68. 91. 134. 220. 508. 7599.
WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST
CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 7.0599E-01 + 1.4063E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.0935E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 3.1136E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.009
TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 128.32 ( 19 DF)
PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001
LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 7.4407E-01 + 1.3995E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.0256E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 3.0565E-01 COS(DECTIME)
ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.983
LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL
---------------------------------------------------
LN(LOAD) = + 1.7631E+00 + 1.2222E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.9603E-01 SIN(DECTIME)
+ 1.8938E-01 COS(DECTIME)
WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION.
1
STATION: Apple River at Hanover, IL (CONTINUED)
STATION NUMBER: AL02.3M
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.50 4.60 5.40 2.50 5.40
STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.10 1.20 1.40 0.46 1.70
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 19.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 16. 55. 363.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.60 3.70 4.30 1.90 4.40
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 9. 16.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 44. 319.
LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER
AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.80 3.00 3.50 1.60 3.00
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8.
PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY)
MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM
0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 30. 157.
LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR
---------------------------------------
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.5