Forest change due to climate warming in the upper midwest
David J. Mladenoff*, University of Wisconsin-Madison, WI  

Forests in the upper midwest are likely to be affected by climate warming in the coming 
decades and centuries. I will present the results of spatial model simulations using LANDIS, 
a forest landscape change model. The simulations were done for northern Wisconsin, using 
maps of current vegetation cover coupled with data from global circulation models of 
climate. Simulations were run starting from current climate, and the projected warming after 
100 years under two different emission scenarios. The model was then run out for an 
additional 100 years, to 2200. Results show that northern tree species, especially conifers 
such as spruce, fir, jack pine, and red pine; and aspen and birch will decline given these 
scenarios. Tree species more common in central and southern Wisconsin, oaks and 
hickories, will have a favorable climate envelope in northern Wisconsin, and will gradually 
migrate north. However, the rate of warming and the rate that species can migrate, coupled 
with the more fragmented forest landcape in central Wisconsin, means that forest decline 
will occur in N Wisconsin, in both tree species diversity, and standing biomass, before the 
southern species can disperse north. These results suggest several consequences for both 
wildlife habitat and forest economics.
*Presenter